Bya Finlay Colville
Ku ya 17 Ugushyingo 2022
Hazaba polysilicon ihagije yakozwe muri 2022 kugirango ishyigikire gukora hafi 320GW ya c-Si modules.Ishusho: Imirasire y'izuba.
Inganda zikomoka ku mirasire y'izuba biteganijwe ko zizatanga 310GW ya modul mu 2022, zikaba ziyongera ku buryo budasanzwe 45% umwaka ushize ugereranije na 2021, nk'uko ubushakashatsi buherutse gukorwa n’itsinda ry’ubushakashatsi ku isoko rya PV Tech bwabigaragaje kandi bukagaragazwa mu nganda nshya za PV & Raporo y'Ikoranabuhanga Igihembwe.
Isoko mu 2022 ryayobowe n’umusaruro kandi amaherezo ryagereranijwe nubunini bwa polysilicon yakozwe umwaka wose.Ibisabwa rimwe na rimwe birashoboka ko byarenze 50-100% kurenza ibyashoboraga gukorwa.
Hazaba polysilicon ihagije yakozwe muri 2022 kugirango ishyigikire gukora hafi 320GW ya c-Si modules.Urwego rwa Wafer na c-Si urwego rwo kubyara rushobora kurangira hafi 315GW.Umusaruro wamasomo (c-Si na thin-firime) ugomba kuba hafi 310GW, hamwe nisoko rya nyuma kuri 297GW.Ndimo gushira ± 2% ikosa-rishingiye kuri izi ndangagaciro nonaha, hasigaye ibyumweru bitandatu byumusaruro kugirango umwaka.
Muri 297GW ya module yoherejwe muri 2022, umubare munini wibi ntabwo uzavamo ubushobozi bushya bwo kwishyiriraho PV.Ibi biterwa nimpamvu nyinshi;bimwe bisanzwe, bimwe bishya.Byinshi byavuzwe ni 'guhunika' modules kuri gasutamo yo muri Amerika no gutinda guhuza.Ariko ubu rwose hari ingano ishimishije ijya mubisimbuza module cyangwa no gusana ibihingwa.Ubushobozi bushya bwa PV bwongeyeho muri 2022 bushobora kurangira hafi 260GW iyo ibi byose bizwi neza.
Duhereye ku nganda, nta gitangaje gikomeye cyabayeho.Ubushinwa bwakoze 90% ya polysilicon, 99% ya wafer, 91% bya selile c-Si na 85% bya c-Si.Kandi byumvikane ko abantu bose bifuza umusaruro wimbere mu gihugu, cyane cyane Ubuhinde, Amerika n'Uburayi.Gushaka ni ikintu kimwe;kugira ni ikindi.
Hafi ya kimwe cya kabiri cya polysilicon yakozwe mu Bushinwa mu 2022 ku nganda za PV ikorerwa mu Bushinwa.Iri gereranya rizagabanuka buri mwaka ujya imbere ubu, nta bushobozi bushya buteganijwe kuza kumurongo muri kano karere.
Ku bijyanye n’ikoranabuhanga, n-ubwoko bwagize uruhare runini, hamwe na TOPCon ubu imyubakire yatoranijwe kubayobozi bamasoko, nubwo amazina amwe azwi cyane yizera ko azanyura muburyo butandukanye ndetse no gusubira inyuma kubipimo byinshi bya GW mumwaka wa 2023. Hafi ya 20GW by'ubwoko bwa n-selile biteganijwe ko bizakorwa muri 2022, muri byo 83% bizaba TOPCon.Abaproducer b'Abashinwa batwara inzibacyuho ya TOPCon;hafi 97% ya selile TOPCon yakozwe muri 2022 iri mubushinwa.Umwaka utaha birashoboka ko uzabona impinduka, mugihe TOPCon itangiye gushakisha inzira mugice cyingirakamaro muri Amerika, ikintu kizasaba selile TOPCon gukorerwa hanze yUbushinwa, ahari muri Aziya y Amajyepfo yAmajyepfo, ariko biterwa nibibaho hamwe niperereza rikomeje gukorwa bijyanye kurwanya kuzenguruka muri Amerika.
Ku bijyanye no kohereza module mu 2022, Uburayi bwaje gutsinda cyane, nubwo 100GW-yongeyeho modul zitangaje zakozwe mu Bushinwa kandi zibikwa mu Bushinwa.Usibye Amerika, andi masoko yose akomeye yarangije kubona iterambere ry’imibare ibiri, bijyanye no kwifuza kwizuba kwizuba ku isi mu minsi ishize.
Uburayi bwahuye n’ibibazo bibiri mu 2022 butera iterambere ritangaje ryagaragaye.Aka karere kahindutse ahantu hoherezwa kububiko butabonetse ku isoko ry’Amerika kandi nabwo bwahise bugira ingaruka ku ngaruka z’amakimbirane yabereye muri Ukraine.Hafi ya 67GW ya module yoherejwe ku isoko ry’iburayi mu 2022 - umubumbe nta muntu wari utegereje umwaka ushize.
Umwaka wose, inganda za PV zahinduwe cyane nijambo rishya ryijambo kumunwa wa buri wese: gukurikirana.Kugura moderi yizuba PV ntabwo byigeze bigorana cyane.
Shyira ku ruhande ko ibiciro bikiri hejuru ya 20-30% ugereranije n’imyaka ibiri ishize, ko amasezerano yasinywe mu mezi atandatu ashize adashobora kuba akwiriye impapuro zanditseho, cyangwa koko ingingo zamahwa zo kwizerwa mu murima no kubahiriza garanti.
Kurenza ibyo byose uyumunsi ni troncability conundrum.Ninde ukora iki n'aho uyumunsi, nibindi byinshi kugeza aho, bazabikora he mumyaka iri imbere.
Isi yibigo irahangana niki kibazo ubu nicyo bivuze mugihe uguze module ya PV.Nanditse byinshi kuri PV Tech mumyaka icumi ishize kubwimpamvu ari ngombwa kumva ko ibigo byinshi bigurisha modul ntakindi bikora usibye ibicuruzwa 'pack' bikozwe nandi masosiyete.Mbere, natekerezaga ko bifite akamaro ahanini mubijyanye no kugira ikizere mubuziranenge;ubu ibi birarengerwa no gukurikiranwa no gukenera kugenzura iminyururu.
Abaguzi ba module bagomba gufata amasomo yo guhanuka mubikorwa byo gutanga amasoko muri iki gihe, bakuyemo ibice bya module kugeza bagarutse kubikoresho fatizo bijya mubihingwa bya polysilicon kwisi yose.Birababaje nkuko bisa nkaho, inyungu zanyuma zizaba ingirakamaro, amaherezo arenze ayo kugenzura.
Kuri ubu, mubijyanye no gukora ibice (polysilicon, wafer, selile na module) ni ingirakamaro mu kugabanya isi ibice bitandatu: Sinayi, Ubushinwa busigaye, Aziya y Amajyepfo yAmajyepfo, Ubuhinde, Amerika, nisi yose.Ahari umwaka utaha, Uburayi buza gukinirwa hano, ariko muri 2022 birahagije gukuramo Uburayi (usibye kuba Wacker akora polysilicon mubudage).
Igishushanyo gikurikira cyakuwe kuri webinar natanze mucyumweru gishize.Irerekana umusaruro 2022 mu turere dutandukanye twerekanwe hejuru.
Ubushinwa bwiganje mu gukora ibice bya PV mu 2022, byibanda cyane ku kuntu polysilicon yakozwe mu Bushinwa.
Ujya muri 2023, hano haribintu byinshi bidashidikanywaho, kandi nzagerageza kubikurikirana mumezi abiri ari imbere mubirori byacu no mubiranga PV Tech hamwe na webinari
Mugihe gukurikirana na ESG bizakomeza kuba hejuru kuri gahunda kuri benshi (haba kugura no kugurisha module), ikibazo cyigiciro cya module (ASP) gishobora kuba aricyo cyo gukurikiranira hafi (nanone!).
Module ASP yagumye hejuru mumyaka ibiri gusa kubera iyi manic irarikira izuba syndrome ya net zeru yashyizeho guverinoma, ibikorwa rusange ndetse nabafatanyabikorwa kwisi (izuba rikomeza kuba ingufu zisubirwamo cyane kubera umuvuduko wo kohereza no kurubuga / guhinduka kwa nyirubwite).Nubwo umuntu atekereza ko icyifuzo (kidasobanutse mugihe igice cyabashoramari gusa babonye ibicuruzwa) kubikuba kabiri mumyaka ibiri iri imbere, mugihe kimwe Ubushinwa burenze ubushobozi bwinjira mukibuga.
Muri make, niba ushaka inshuro ebyiri umwaka utaha kandi urwego rutanga ishoramari kugirango rukore inshuro eshatu ingano yumwaka ushize, ibi bihinduka isoko ryabaguzi kandi igiciro cyibicuruzwa kiramanuka.Kwisi yose uyumunsi, icyuho ni polysilicon.Muri 2023, amasoko amwe arashobora kugira izindi mbogamizi niba hari ibintu bitumizwa hanze byashyizwe mubindi bice byurwego rwagaciro (selile cyangwa modules, urugero).Ariko icyibandwaho ni muri polysilicon nuburyo ubushobozi bushya buzaza kumurongo mubushinwa nicyo ibyo bizatanga;ubushobozi n'umusaruro nibintu bibiri bitandukanye cyane cyane iyo abakinnyi bashya binjiye mumwanya.
Guteganya umusaruro wa polysilicon muri 2023 biragoye cyane uyumunsi.Ntabwo aribyinshi mubijyanye no gukora urwego rwubushobozi bushya 'ruzubakwa';byinshi rero ukurikije ibyo ibi bizatanga kandi niba 'cartel' yubushinwa polysilicon izakora kugirango igenzure itangwa kugirango ikomeze.Nibyumvikana ko abashinwa ba polysilicon yubushinwa bakora nka club, cyangwa amakarito, kandi bagabanya umuvuduko mugihe bibaye ngombwa, cyangwa gukora ibikorwa byongerewe hagati yumwaka kugirango babone ibarura.
Amateka atubwira ibinyuranye nubwo.Amasosiyete yo mu Bushinwa akunda kurenga iyo hari isoko rikenewe, kandi n’ubwo igihugu cyashyizwe mu bikorwa kugira ngo gitange manda ku rwego rw’ubushobozi bw’umurenge, birangira ku buntu-kuri bose hamwe n’amafaranga atagira ingano ku meza ku muntu wese winjira hamwe icyifuzo cy'inganda.
Ni ngombwa kumenya ko ibiciro bya polysilicon bishobora kumanuka, ariko ibiciro byiyongera.Ibi birashobora kugorana kubyakira kuko binyuranyije na logique isanzwe muruganda rwa PV.Ariko nikintu gishobora guhinduka muri 2023. Nzagerageza kubisobanura nonaha.
Ku isoko rifite amasoko arenze urugero (nkuko inganda za PV zakoraga cyane kugeza muri 2020), usanga hagenda hagabanuka module ASP igenda igabanuka no kugabanuka hejuru kubiciro.Mburabuzi, ibiciro bya polysilicon (ukeka ko birenzeho hariya) ni bike.Tekereza US US $ 10 / kg inyuma kumunsi.
Mu myaka ibiri ishize, ibiciro bya module ntabwo byazamutse gusa kubera ko itangwa rya polysilicon ryari ryinshi kandi igiciro cyiyongereye (kugeza hejuru ya US $ 30 / kg ahanini), ariko kubera ko cyari isoko ryabacuruzi.Niba ibiciro bya polysilicon muri 2022 byagabanutse bikagera kuri US $ 10 / kg, abatanga module barashobora kugurisha ibicuruzwa biri hagati ya 30-40c / W.Byari kuba gusa marike kuri wafer, selile na module ikora.Ntabwo uzana igiciro hasi niba udakeneye.
Mu mezi 18 ashize, byarantangaje kubona Beijing itategetse (inyuma yinyuma) 'gutegeka' amakarito ya polysilicon mu Bushinwa kugirango ibiciro bigabanuke.Ntabwo gufasha isi yose mugihe uguze modules, ahubwo ni ukwemerera umugabane mwiza winyungu mugice gisigaye cyagaciro kibyara umusaruro mubushinwa.Gusa ndatekereza ko bitabaye kuko abantu bose mubushinwa bashoboye gutera imbere no kugumana inyungu zingana na 10-15% - ndetse na polysilicon yagurishijwe US $ 40 / kg.Impamvu imwe gusa yatuma itegeko rya Beijing ryaba kwereka isi ko abatanga polysilicon (ibuka kimwe cya kabiri cya polysilicon yo mu Bushinwa mu 2022 yakorewe mu Bushinwa) batatanze raporo ya 70-80% mugihe bari munsi y’ibibazo byaturutse ku kibazo cyose cy’Ubushinwa. .
Kubwibyo, ntabwo ari ibisazi ko mugihe cya 2023, hari igihe ibiciro bya polysilicon bigabanuka ariko ibiciro bya module ntibigire ingaruka kandi birashoboka ko byiyongera.
Ntabwo ari inkuru mbi yose kubaguzi ba module muri 2023. Hariho ibimenyetso byerekana ko kugabanuka kwinshi kuzabaho, cyane cyane mugice cya mbere cya 2023 kandi birashoboka ko byabanje kugaragara kubaguzi ba module yuburayi.Ibyinshi muribi biva muburyo umurenge wubushinwa urimo kureba kohereza ibicuruzwa byinshi muburayi kandi byanze bikunze birenze ibyo abanyaburayi bashinzwe iterambere / EPC bashobora gukora mugihe gito.
Inyinshi muri izi ngingo zizaba icyiciro cya mbere mu nama ya PV ModuleTech izabera i Malaga, Espanye ku ya 29-30 Ugushyingo 2022. Haracyariho umwanya wo kwitabira ibirori;ibisobanuro byinshi kuri hyperlink hano nuburyo bwo kwiyandikisha kugirango witabe.Ntabwo byigeze bibaho ibihe byiza kuri twe gukora inama yacu yambere yuburayi PV ModuleTech!
Igihe cyo kohereza: Ugushyingo-21-2022