Raporo ya Wood Mackenzie iherutse kureba imigendekere n'imbogamizi ku isoko ry’izuba ryiyongera muri Amerika, harimo n'inganda zatewe n'itegeko ryo kugabanya ifaranga rya Amerika.
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Itegeko ryo kugabanya ifaranga ry’Amerika muri 2022 rikubiyemo miliyari 370 z'amadolari yo gukoresha ingufu zishobora kongera ingufu n’ingamba z’ikirere.Umushinga w'itegeko urimo miliyari zisaga 60 z'amadolari ya Amerikainganda zo mu gihuguhakurya y'urusobe rutanga ingufu.Uru rwego rwamateka rwishoramari ni urufunguzo rwo kugera ku bwigenge bw’abanyamerika n’umutekano usukuye.
Raporo iheruka gukorwa na Wood Mackenzie yerekana ko abashinzwe iterambere, amasosiyete yubaka amasoko y’ubwubatsi (EPCs), n’abakora inganda bazashakisha ubuyobozi bw’ishami ry’imari n’Amerika muri IRS kugira ngo bisobanuke neza hagamijwe ingamba zo guteza imbere izuba rishya n’ishoramari mu nganda nshya zikora inganda. muri Amerika.
Raporo ireba imigendekere y’uru ruganda rugenda rwiyongera, harimo kwibanda ku moderi ya TOPCon hejuru ya heterojunction (HJT), kuzamuka ku isoko ry’imiturire ihindagurika ku isi, kwagura inganda zikurikirana, kugabanuka kw’ibiciro by’umushinga w’izuba ndetse no kureba ibibazo biri imbere. .
TOPcon na PERC
TOPCon, isobanura tuneli ya okiside itambutse, biteganijwe ko izarenga heterojunction (HJT), kandi raporo ya Wood Mackenzie ivuga ko mono PERC "ari ikoranabuhanga rihuza gukura no gukora neza", byerekana ko TOPCon ifite amahirwe menshi yo gukura bitewe nibikorwa kunoza no gutezimbere ibiciro.
“PERCIkoranabuhangaifite kandi umurongo wihuse wo kwiga kandi uburinganire buri hagati yabo buzaterwa n’umwe uzashobora kongera imikorere cyangwa kugabanya ibiciro byihuse kurusha undi. " (ISE), yabwiwepv ikinyamakuruumwaka ushize.
Abasesenguzi ba Wood Mackenzie bavuga ko modul ya TOPCon yageze kuri 25% mu musaruro rusange kandi ishobora kuzamuka kuri 28.7%
Kuzamura inganda ziva mu musaruro wa mono PERC ukagera kuri TOPCon ni ishoramari ryoroheje kandi ugereranije n’igiciro gito, kandi abasesenguzi bavuga ko laboratoire ya 27% ishobora kugerwaho hifashishijwe iterambere ry’ibyuma na waferi yoroheje.Wood Mackenzie avuga ko abayikora bamwe biteze ko impuzandengo ya wafer igereranijwe kuri moderi nini ya TOPCon igabanuka kuri 20 mkm uyumwaka ikagera kuri 120 mkm, ibyo bikaba bizatuma ibiciro byinshi bigabanuka muri 2023.
Itegeko ryo kugabanya ifaranga ritera inkunga inganda zo muri Amerika zatewe na miliyari 30 z’amadolari y’inguzanyo z’umusoro ku musaruro ndetse n’inguzanyo ya miliyari 10 z’amadolari yo gushora imari mu kubaka ibikoresho by’ikoranabuhanga bisukuye.Wood Mackenzie yiteze Amerikaubushobozi bwo gukora modulekurenga 15 GW mu mpera zuyu mwaka.
Ikibazo kinini, ariko, ni ubusobanuro bw "ibikoresho bikozwe mu gihugu", kandi niba bivuze ko module ziteranijwe muri Amerika, cyangwa niba ibice byose bikozwe muri Amerika.Ikibazo ku bakora module ni uko muri Amerika nta nkunga ya wafer cyangwa selile ikora muri Amerika, nubwo ibyo bihinduka hamwe n'amatangazo aherutse gutangazwa namasosiyete arimo Qcells na CubicPV.Raporo ivuga ko itandukaniro mu gusobanura ibiri mu gihugu “rishobora kugira ingaruka zikomeye ku bushobozi bwo gukora module mu myaka itanu iri imbere”.Abasesenguzi bavuga ko hafi 45 GWdc yo gutangaza ubushobozi bushya izaza kumurongo bitarenze 2026.
Iterambere ry’izuba riteganijwe muri Amerika rizazunguruka binyuze mu gutanga amasoko, bizamura iterambere muri inverters na trackers, hamwe nibindi bikoresho bifasha.Raporo ya Wood Mackenzie ivuga ko impinduka za politiki ziherutse, zirimo REPowerEU y’ubumwe bw’ibihugu by’Uburayi, ishyirwa mu bikorwa ry’Ubuhinde gushyira mu bikorwa umusaruro ufatika (PLI) na Amerika IRA, bizihutisha imirasire y'izuba muri ibi bihugu, bityo bigafasha ibihugu kugera ku ntego zeru zeru.
Nk’uko iyi raporo ibigaragaza, isoko ry’imiturire yo guturamo riziyongera ku isi hose mu 2023. Hamwe n’izuba hejuru y’izuba ryiyongera, cyane cyane mu bihugu nk’Ubuhinde n’Ubudage, hazabaho izamuka rikwiranye n’isoko rya microinverters, inverters in DC na optimizers, guhitamo cyane inverter guhitamo kubisenge hejuru.Ikigaragara ni uko imirongo ihindagurika hamwe nimbaraga nyinshi ntarengwa zikurikirana (MPPTs) izabona isoko ryiyongera muri 2023.
Inverteri yo guturamo izabona ikoreshwa ryubwenge bwimbaraga muri algorithm.Ibikoresho bya elegitoroniki yo mu rwego rwa Module (MLPEs) hamwe na inverteri yicyiciro kimwe, bizwi cyane mumashanyarazi akomoka ku mirasire y'izuba, bizabona umugabane wa 11% mumasoko yoherejwe na inverter ku isi mu 2023. Gukora inverter biziyongera hamwe nabakinnyi bakomeye bongeraho umurongo w’ibicuruzwa n’abinjira bashya. kwinjira ku isoko, kandi amarushanwa azakurikiraho azatuma igiciro kiva kuri 2% kigera kuri 4% muri 2023.
Ikibazo gikomeje kugaragara ku bakora inganda za inverter ni ikibazo cyo kubura chip ku isi, abasesenguzi ba Wood Mackenzie bateganya ko kizakomeza kugeza mu 2023 kandi kigasohoka kugeza mu 2024. Ubukene bwatumye abakora inverter bakomoka ku bicuruzwa biva mu ruganda rwo hasi mbere yo gukora ibizamini bikomeye mu ngo kwemeza inverter zabo ubuziranenge, imikorere nigihe cyo kubaho.Wood Mac iteganya ko igiciro cya inverter kitazamanuka kugeza mu mpera zuyu mwaka.
Umusaruro ukurikirana mu gihugu urihuta mu bice byinshi by’isi kubera gahunda za leta kimwe n’ibibazo by’ibikoresho byahuye n’icyorezo cya COVID-19.Abasesenguzi ba Wood Mackenzie bavuga ko ibiciro by'abakurikirana bizagabanuka mu Buhinde no muri Amerika.Bategereje umutekano muke mu gutanga ibyuma muri Amerika n'Ubuhinde, cyane cyane no kwagura inganda zisanzwe.Uburayi ariko, buzakomeza guhura nubusumbane ku isoko ryibyuma.Abasesenguzi ba Wood Mackenzie bavuga ko kubera ko hejuru ya 60% by'abakurikirana ibyuma ari ibyuma, uku kwiyongera kw'ibyuma bizatuma irushanwa ryiyongera ku mugabane w'isoko ry'abacuruzi ku bacuruzi, avuga ko ibiciro 2023 ku bakurikirana bizagabanukaho 5% muri Amerika, Burezili na Ubushinwa.
Ibiciro by'izuba
Amafaranga yakoreshejwe mumafaranga azakomeza kugabanuka, atwarwa igice nukwongera gukoresha modul ya TOPcon.Abasesenguzi ba Wood Mackenzie bategereje kandi ko ibiciro bya polysilicon bizagabanuka muri uyu mwaka kandi bagereranya ko bihari300 GWubushobozi bwisi yose buzagera kuri 900 GW mu mpera za 2023.
Yakomeje agira ati: "Turateganya ko Mt irenga miliyoni imwe yo kwagura polysilicon izaza kuri interineti mu 2023. Benshi mu bushobozi bushya buzaba mu Bushinwa.Icyakora, twizera ko hafi 10% biteganijwe kuba hanze y'Ubushinwa bishobora gutegeka igiciro cy’ibiciro kuko gishobora kuba kitarangwamo amahoro ndetse n’izindi ngaruka za politiki. ”
Ikibazo gikomeje ni ukutamenya neza ibiciro bya antidumping / kurwanya ibiciro (AD / CVD).Mu gihe biteganijwe ko Minisiteri y’ubucuruzi muri Amerika izatangaza icyemezo cyayo cya nyuma muri Gicurasi 2023, Wood Mackenzie avuga ko imisoro ishobora kuva kuri 16% kugeza kuri 254% hashingiwe ku gihugu akomokamo.Icyemezo kibanziriza iki, cyashyizwe ahagaragara mu Kuboza 2022, cyasanze ibigo byo mu cyiciro cya mbere, nka Trina, BYD, Vina (ishami rya Longi) na Solar yo muri Kanada, bikuraho imisoro y’Ubushinwa.Icyemezo kibanza cyahanaguye Hanwha na Jinko bizavamo gutabarwa muburyo bwa module iboneka muri 2023.
Muri Amerika, abashinzwe iterambere bazakomeza kwibanda ku bisabwa na IRA, harimo umushahara wiganje ndetse n’ibihembo by’imbere mu gihugu byiyongera ku mishinga minini y’ingirakamaro itangira kubakwa mu 2023. Kugira ngo imishinga isabe 30% yuzuye y’imisoro y’ishoramari cyangwa umusoro ku musaruro; inguzanyo, imishinga yose irenze 1 MWac igomba guhemba abakozi bayo umushahara wiganje kandi igashyiraho gahunda yo kwitoza.
Mu Burayi, politiki ya REPowerEU igamije gushyiraho 320 GW y’izuba PV mu 2025 na 600 GW mu ngamba z’ingufu z’izuba z’Uburayi.Kugira ngo izo ntego zishyirwe mu bikorwa, zigomba kubaka ihuriro rikomeye ry’inganda mu karere.Ihuriro rishya ry’ibihugu by’i Burayi Solar Photovoltaic Industry Alliance, rizashyiraho urwego rufasha mu gutera inkunga inkunga y’inganda no guteza imbere ubushakashatsi n’udushya mu ikoranabuhanga rya module, hamwe n’ikoranabuhanga rya zeru-karubone.
Ikibazo cya nyuma kuriGukora PVmu Burayi, nk'uko abasesengura Wood Mackenzie babitangaza, ni irushanwa ry’ibiciro biva mu karere ka APAC bitewe n’igiciro cyinshi cy’ingufu, umurimo n’ibikoresho, ariko rishobora kugirira akamaro abakiriya bafite ubushake bwo kwishyura igihembo cy’ikoranabuhanga ryiza no gukorera mu mucyo.
Igihe cyo kohereza: Mutarama-29-2023